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An Informative Coffee Break

On Monday morning, April 28, George Smith was given the news that effective May 1 he would receive a raise of 8 percent. This raise came two months before his scheduled performance appraisal. His manager, Loretta Weeks, informed him that the basis for the raise was his performance over the past several months and his potential worth to the company. He was told this was a very considerable increase. On Tuesday, a group of George’s coworkers were having their normal coffee break. The conversation turned to salary increases. One member of the group had received a performance review in April, but no indication of an impending salary adjustment had been given. George made a comment concerning the amount of any such increase, specifically questioning the range of increase percentages. Another coworker responded that she was surprised to have received an across-the-board 7 percent increase the previous Friday. A third individual had received a similar salary increase. Definitely astounded, George pressed for information, only to learn that several people had received increases of “around” 6 to 8 percent. George excused himself and left the group. That evening, George wrestled with his conscience concerning the discussion that day. His first impression of his raise was that it had been given based on performance. His second impression was decidedly sour. Several questions were bothering him:

1. Why did his boss present the raise as a merit increase?

2. Was job performance really a basis for salary increases in his department?

3. Did his boss hide the truth regarding the raise?

4. Could he trust his boss in the future?

5. On what basis would further increases be issued?

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The AB Charity is planning its annual campaign to raise money. This year three alternative methods are being considered: (i) street collections, (ii) a television advertising campaign and (iii) a directmail appeal. After using simulation to assess the risk associated with the alternatives the charity’s managers have opted for a direct-mail appeal. The direct-mail appeal will involve sending out 343 000 letters to selected people. To encourage donation these will include a free ballpoint pen displaying the charity’s logo and people not replying after three weeks will receive a reminder. While the fixed costs of the campaign and the cost of sending out each letter and reminder are known for certain the charity’s managers have had to estimate probability distributions for the following four factors: (a) The percentage of people who will reply to the first letter in the North (N), Central (C) and South (S) regions of the country, respectively. (b) The average donation of those replying to the first letter in each of these regions. (c) The percentage of people who will reply to the reminder in each of the three regions. (d) The average donation of those replying to the reminder in each of the regions. Probability distributions have been estimated for the different regions because their different economic conditions are likely to have a major effect on people’s propensity to donate to the charity. The cumulative probability distribution of net returns (i.e. the total value of donations less the cost of running the direct-mail appeal). It can be seen that there is approximately a 20% probability that the net returns will be negative, causing the charity to lose money. In the simulation the possible losses extended to nearly $150 000. The managers of the charity are keen to take action to reduce this risk, but are not sure where their actions should be directed? The numbers at the ends of the bars show what are thought to be the highest and lowest possible values for each factor. For example, the possible average donation in the North is thought to range from $2 to $17. (a) Identify the areas where risk management is likely to be most effective. (b) Create a set of possible risk management strategies that might reduce the risk of the charity losing money and increase its expected return.

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