REQUIREMENT #1: Running Estimate (10 Points. Three to four double-spaced pages)
You are the S-3 of the 6th Ranger Battalion conducting mission analysis on 27 January 1945 at the Ranger base camp at Calasiao on the Lingayen Gulf. Provide a complete movement estimate that LTC Mucci and his staff would use to develop plans and analyze various courses of action. Although you have the benefit of hindsight, write your running estimate as you would have on 27 Jan (in the present or future tense) rather than as an AAR of what actually occurred (in the past tense). Although there are some guides and formats to a generic estimate (FM 6-0 Chapter 8), as well as a sample medical estimate included with this examination, you can modify those formats or develop one to help you present your analysis to LTC Mucci. Your movement estimate should include, but is not limited to:
Time available to conduct the operation before the Japanese decide to move or murder the POWs, and how much time to allocate to planning, preparation and execution.
Maintaining secrecy in varied terrain during day and night operations.
The appropriate balance of speed and security.
The best time of day to initiate actions on the objective.
The anticipated distances covered by, rates of movement for and time required to:
o the Ranger advance to the POW Camp
o actions on the objective
o the movement of Rangers & former POWs and 6th Army to a link-up point
o Japanese counterattacks.
How Filipino civilians and guerrillas, as well as the US Army Air Corps can help expedite friendly forces or impede enemy forces.
Essentially, your estimate should explain to LTC Mucci how the Rangers can get to the compound before the Japanese make the decision to move or murder the POWs, and how the task force and former POWs can link up with 6th Army before the Japanese catch that vulnerable group. Your analysis of time and distance should identify planning considerations to allow you to lead the MDMP process properly.
Remember, the goal of the estimate is to help LTC Mucci plan for this mission by providing him specific information he probably doesn’t know, rather than general ideas which he probably does know. For example, stating that the POWs will move slowly is not helpful to LTC Mucci, while ESTIMATING that the POWs could move at one mile per hour for three hour
REQUIREMENT #7: COA Analysis (Wargame), Comparison & Recommendation (20 Points. Three to four double-spaced pages)
On 27 January, while the Rangers are still in their base camp planning and preparing for their mission, LTC Mucci approaches you and says: “I’m very concerned the locals may not be able to provide enough carts to move the POWs back to Guimba. Please wargame these three contingencies and give me your recommendation and rationale.”
Continue to move toward Guimba, recognizing that movement will be slow.
Stay in the camp and defend while the 6th Army sends a regimental combat team to link up with us.
Move outside the camp to the first concealed location, and establish a defensive perimeter while the 6th Army sends a regimental combat team to link up with us.
A recommended approach is to (a) list the most relevant facts and assumptions, (b) establish & define the measurable evaluation criteria, (c) analyze each COA against each evaluation criterion, (d) compare the COAs, and (e) make and justify a recommendation.
Refer to FM 6-0 (paragraphs 9-80 & 9-121 to 9-187)
Suggested Sources:
Chaper 6 In Leavenworth Papers #11 “Rangers: Selected Combat Operations in World War II,” Dr. Michael J. King
Essential sources:
ADRP 6-0 dated May 2012, ADRP 3-90 dated Aug 2012 and FM 6-0 dated May 2015 are the primary doctrinal references for this examination.
You are the S-3 of the 6th Ranger Battalion conducting mission analysis on 27 January 1945 at the Ranger base camp at Calasiao on the Lingayen Gulf. Provide a complete movement estimate that LTC Mucci and his staff would use to develop plans and analyze various courses of action. Although you have the benefit of hindsight, write your running estimate as you would have on 27 Jan (in the present or future tense) rather than as an AAR of what actually occurred (in the past tense). Although there are some guides and formats to a generic estimate (FM 6-0 Chapter 8), as well as a sample medical estimate included with this examination, you can modify those formats or develop one to help you present your analysis to LTC Mucci. Your movement estimate should include, but is not limited to:
Time available to conduct the operation before the Japanese decide to move or murder the POWs, and how much time to allocate to planning, preparation and execution.
Maintaining secrecy in varied terrain during day and night operations.
The appropriate balance of speed and security.
The best time of day to initiate actions on the objective.
The anticipated distances covered by, rates of movement for and time required to:
o the Ranger advance to the POW Camp
o actions on the objective
o the movement of Rangers & former POWs and 6th Army to a link-up point
o Japanese counterattacks.
How Filipino civilians and guerrillas, as well as the US Army Air Corps can help expedite friendly forces or impede enemy forces.
Essentially, your estimate should explain to LTC Mucci how the Rangers can get to the compound before the Japanese make the decision to move or murder the POWs, and how the task force and former POWs can link up with 6th Army before the Japanese catch that vulnerable group. Your analysis of time and distance should identify planning considerations to allow you to lead the MDMP process properly.
Remember, the goal of the estimate is to help LTC Mucci plan for this mission by providing him specific information he probably doesn’t know, rather than general ideas which he probably does know. For example, stating that the POWs will move slowly is not helpful to LTC Mucci, while ESTIMATING that the POWs could move at one mile per hour for three hour
REQUIREMENT #7: COA Analysis (Wargame), Comparison & Recommendation (20 Points. Three to four double-spaced pages)
On 27 January, while the Rangers are still in their base camp planning and preparing for their mission, LTC Mucci approaches you and says: “I’m very concerned the locals may not be able to provide enough carts to move the POWs back to Guimba. Please wargame these three contingencies and give me your recommendation and rationale.”
Continue to move toward Guimba, recognizing that movement will be slow.
Stay in the camp and defend while the 6th Army sends a regimental combat team to link up with us.
Move outside the camp to the first concealed location, and establish a defensive perimeter while the 6th Army sends a regimental combat team to link up with us.
A recommended approach is to (a) list the most relevant facts and assumptions, (b) establish & define the measurable evaluation criteria, (c) analyze each COA against each evaluation criterion, (d) compare the COAs, and (e) make and justify a recommendation.
Refer to FM 6-0 (paragraphs 9-80 & 9-121 to 9-187)
Suggested Sources:
Chaper 6 In Leavenworth Papers #11 “Rangers: Selected Combat Operations in World War II,” Dr. Michael J. King
Essential sources:
ADRP 6-0 dated May 2012, ADRP 3-90 dated Aug 2012 and FM 6-0 dated May 2015 are the primary doctrinal references for this examination.
