You can analyze the data however you want—I will not grade you on the sophistication
of your analysis. The simplest method is just to look at the data using simple excel
graphs, but if you want to get fancier, you can. You may want to calculate growth rates
for some of the data (or not—you don’t have to). You will have to refer to the data in
your graded answers below.
Labor Markets
CIVPART – Labor force participation rate
EMRATIO – Employment to population ratio
UNRATE – Unemployment Rate
U6RATE – Unemployment plus Marginally Attached
NROU – Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)
NROU – Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term)
UNRATERMLR – FOMC Target Long Run Unemployment
Inflation
CPIAUCSL_PC1 – Inflation rate
T10YIEM – 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
T5YIEM –5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
MICH – Univ. Michigan Inflation Expectation (Survey)
PCECTPIRMLR – FOMC Target Long Run Inflation
Production
EXPGSC1 – Exports
GDPC1 – Real GDP (both levels and growth rates)
GDPC1RMLR – FOMC Target Long Run GDP
GDPPOT – Potential GDP (GDP if we were at full employment)
IMPGSC1 – Imports
IP – Industrial Production
PNFI – Nonresidential fixed investment
PRFI – Residential fixed investment (housing)
AO67R…. – Real Disposable Personal Income
FINSLC96 – Real Sales
Current Policy
AFDEF – Federal Government Deficit
AFEXPND – Federal Government Spending
AFRECPT – Federal Government Tax Receipts
FEDFUNDS – Federal Funds Rate
M2SL – M2 money supply