Loss of load probability (LOLP) is a method that discovered the reliability of solar power decreased was due to a lack of available generator capacity

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Post by Dengyuan Tan

Due to the high demand for solar power usage increases but the solar power system is unstable, solar PV could decrease during a day of high demands and not able to provide enough power as needed. As the demand for solar power increases, we want to ensure the solar power system is reliable and find out ways to expand solar power energy storage capacity value. The peer-reviewed article discussed probability methods to increase the reliability of solar power systems to identify the cause.

Loss of load probability (LOLP) is a method that discovered the reliability of solar power decreased was due to a lack of available generator capacity. According to this article, the LOLP is determined by assigning a reliability factor to each firm generator in the power system based on Equivalent Forced Outage Rate – Demand (EFOR-d). LOLP is decreased when solar generation is decreased (Sodano, 2021). The capacity credit is calculated using the reliability metrics minus the amount of solar PV loaded each hour.

Energy storage is estimated using an optimization model called Temoa. It uses the most cost-effective way to perform linear optimization on the energy system. This method uses open-source data and builds the linear optimization model using Python. The model balances supply and demand over time. The idea behind this method is to find out how solar PV and storage capacity correlate each year and forecast using the time-series model. Therefore, we are able to identify and predict which time of the year reached peak capacity and approximately how much solar PV energy is required (Sodano, 2021).

 

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