The objective of this week’s sessions is to offer a further area of theory which you might like to use for your CW2 presentations. Also, this kind of combines several areas which are by now familiar to you and extends the range of psychology to the influences, pressures, processes and difficulties involved in making decisions.

TASK 1

. Some websites had been made inaccessible (essay-commissioning websites, for example)

One day one of the IT people noticed several attempts by one teacher to access a banned site, and in collaboration with the supervisor they monitored the surfing habits of the teacher. He was downloading porn.
The owner (67 yrs old) was immediately informed. The teacher was sacked on the spot for breach of contract, specifically bringing the organization into disrepute.

The owner, wanting to preserve the morals and integrity of the organization, then sent a general email to all staff and students which said ‘An incident has occurred in which one of our number has been dismissed for accessing websites which may corrupt the morals of our school. Many sites do not vet the content, so from next week all access to Facebook, Youtube, Flickr and other social networking sites will be blocked’.
1. What decisions are involved in this story? Consider the assumptions of the people involved before and during this episode.
2. What reactions do you think might result from this?
3. What further decisions need to be taken?
2. Quotes and explanations of decision-making

What do the following tell us about the real world of decision-making?

1. “The end of planning, the beginning of implementation”
2. The point at which resources are committed and direction is fixed
3. “Life is a series of decisions”
4. The thought-process which results in the selection of a choice, often considered to be logical
5. The process of mapping the likely consequences of decisions, working out the importance of individual factors, and choosing the best course of action to take.
6. 
”We know what happens to people who stay in the middle of the road. They get run over.” Aneurin Bevan
7. Rational models are used to justify decisions which have already been made
8. If you understand enough about the situation then a decision will simply emerge
3. Influences on decision-making
A selection from multiple sources

National / religious / ethnic cultural factors The prevailing culture: religion, art, history, language
Ethics
Organisational culture, background and environment Organisational politics
Fear of the competition
The nature and intensity of the motivation of your workers
The nature of the team (complementary skills, etc)
‘Fit’ with the vision, mission etc
Organisational situational factors Lack of time Too much time Complacency
The fact that you can The fact that it might prove a useful training ground for your employees
Personality Pride Envy Greed To impress someone A whim
A hunch Some guy in the pub
Personality: Cognitive Biases (some of the many dozens identified, systematically explained by Tversky and Kahneman, 1974 but they pulled in several strands) Confirmation bias – we notice evidence that supports our previous opinions and we ignore evidence against them
Availability heuristic – we notice our first, immediate, available, thoughts and use them to make decisions (e.g. rumours of car theft mentioned twice in one day might lead to you increasing security on your company’s cars.
Halo effect – overall impression leads to assumptions about specifics. A beautiful job candidate is often assumed to be good at specific aspects of the job (Thorndike, 1920).
Self-serving bias – success comes from our own skills etc, failure is blamed on others.
Attentional bias – we tend to focus our attention on one or two specific points, and ignore others which we perceive to be less important
Anchoring bias – we tend to focus on the first thing we learn or assume about a situation. The first numbers we hear associated with a decision are then modified and the final result often interpreted in the light of the first one.
False consensus bias – assuming everyone else has the same opinion as you, making decisions on that basis without checking.
Framing effect – watch this
Preconceptions about the process The fact that it will involve a rational and thorough analysis of all available data, following a consultative process with all stakeholders who are fully informed.
Recent personal events A book / film / play etc you’ve just read / seen etc
The success of a family member with a similar decision
A serious illness you’ve just recovered from
A sporting triumph you were a part of
A fantastic weekend away with your friends
A disastrous weekend away with your friends
Situational personality factors Your mood at the time SAD
Cognitive dissonance The stress caused by having two conflicting opinions at the same time e.g. finding the incredible charity you’re working for has a tyrannical culture.

And many more….
4. Real world Influences on decision-making: examples

Extract from Thirteen Days: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYRCTHj7k8Y

Brief background to a true but dramatized story:
• October 1962: Soviet missiles discovered on Cuban soil by US Air Force spy planes. This is perceived as clear threat to US security.
• The US Government, as part of its response to force Cuba and the Soviets to withdraw the missiles, sets up a complete trade blockade around Cuba.
• A cargo vessel tries to get through, bound for Cuba

In this clip Robert MacNamara (Secretary of Defence) confronts Admiral George Anderson who authorises a US Navy warship to fire on the cargo vessel.

Questions (please take notes):
1. What decision(s) does MacNamara make?

2. What are the influences on that decision?

3. Do you think it was a good decision, based on the information in this clip?

6. When decisions have undesirable results (or: ‘What were you thinking?!’)

Case 1.
May 2004: When the American lawyer, Brandon Mayfield, was thrown in jail after the Madrid train bombings, the FBI said they were “100% certain” that his fingerprint was at the scene. Fingerprint examiners, one after the other, agreed with the identification and maintained that the prints were Mr Mayfield’s. But when the Spanish police named the real culprit, the world’s leading law enforcement agency had to own up to a terrible mistake. The fingerprint experts had got it 100 per cent wrong.
Why do you think the FBI made the decision that it was Mayfield?

Case 2.

August 2014: “Google’s announcement…that they’ve been testing delivery drones caught the tech world by surprise. What wasn’t surprising to experts familiar with the industry is that Google conducted all of their aerial tests outside the United States. That’s because the FAA has utterly failed to create procedures for companies like Google to test their innovative new technology. Any responsible company should make the same realization as Google —waiting for the FAA to get their act together is a losing proposition”.
7. Frameworks for understanding and making decisions
Of course all of the following need to be adapted to each individual situation.

7.1. Bounded rationality
We must consider Herbert Simon’s (1982) concept of ‘bounded rationality’, which refers to the common-sense idea that the area within which we make decisions is limited by three things:
• Incomplete and possibly unreliable information
• The capacity of the human mind to process all of the information effectively
• The time available

We should probably also specify the following, although they are connected:
• We may not know all of the alternative solutions and all their consequences
• We may not objectively follow the process outlined above
• Our goals as manager may not be consistent with corporate goals (the Principal-Agent problem)

7.2 Deciding how to decide (there is a close connection to leadership)
1. Patterson, Grenny, McMillan, and Switzler (2011)
Four common ways of making decisions:
. Command – decisions are made with no involvement.
. Consult – invite input from others.
. Vote – discuss options and then call for a vote.
Consensus – talk until everyone agrees to one decision.

2. The Vroom-Yetton-Jago model of deciding how to decide:

When you sit down to make a decision, your style, and the degree of participation you need to get from your team, are affected by three main factors:
1. Decision Quality – how important is it to come up with the “right” solution? The higher the quality of the decision needed, the more you should involve other people in the decision.
2. Subordinate Commitment – how important is it that your team and others buy into the decision? When teammates need to embrace the decision you should increase the participation levels.
3. Time Constraints – How much time do you have to make the decision? The more time you have, the more you have the luxury of including others, and of using the decision as an opportunity for teambuilding.

Specific Leadership Styles
The way that these factors impact on you helps you determine the best leadership and decision-making style to use. Vroom-Jago distinguishes three styles of leadership, and five different processes of decision-making that you can consider using:
The underlying assumption of the Vroom-Yetton-Jago Decision Models is that no one leadership style or decision making process fits all situations.
Style: Autocratic – you make the decision and inform others of it.
There are two separate processes for decision making in an autocratic style:
Processes: Autocratic 1(A1) – you use the information you already have and make the decision
Autocratic 2 (A2) – you ask team members for specific information and once you have it, you make the decision. Here you don’t necessarily tell them what the information is needed for.

Style: Consultative – you gather information from the team and other and then make the decision.
Processes: Consultative 1 (C1) – you inform team members of what you’re doing and may individually ask opinions, however, the group is not brought together for discussion. You make the decision.
Consultative 2 (C2) – you are responsible for making the decision, however, you get together as a group to discuss the situation, hear other perspectives, and solicit suggestions.

Style: Collaborative – you and your team work together to reach a consensus.
Process: Group (G2) – The team makes a decision together. Your role is mostly facilitative and you help the team come to a final decision that everyone agrees on.

So these are the decision-making styles, the following takes you through a series of questions to help determine which style is best.

Try the VYJ system on the following examples with the people next to you. In each case, assume time is not a problem. Also please indicate what other information you would need to help you.

1. As CEO of a large company you are considering whether to bring in one company to take care of all your IT services, replacing small contractors and in-house specialists. Which method should you use to decide what to do?

2. As the manager of the marketing department for a large oil exploration company your objective for the next 5 years is to present your company as the ‘greenest oil exploration company in the world’. Which method are you going to use to decide what to do?

3. You run a small food manufacturing company. Health and Safety concerns mean you have to bring in a new system of reporting on quality, cleanliness etc. Solutions might involve digitisation of reporting procedures, colleagues checking each other’s work, or outsourcing of monitoring procedures to a contractor. Which method are you going to use to decide what to do?
7.5. Decision-making methods and models
a. Pros and Cons
Your company has given you, the HR manager, a certain amount of money to spend on recruitment, training and ‘motivational initiatives’. After essentials are taken care of you realize there is enough money to pay for a 3-day weekend training course in Spain for all of the front-line staff in September, your quietest month. List the pros and cons for this idea.

Pros /10 Cons /10

Total Total
b. Rational linear processes

b.1 Bazeman, 1994

1. Define the problem.
2. Identify the criteria or objectives of the decision.
3. Weight or prioritize the criteria or objectives of the decision.
4. Generate alternative courses of action to solve the problem.
5. Evaluate the alternatives against each criterion or objective.
6. Compute the optimal decision.

b.2 Kepner-Tregoe (‘K-T’) Problem Analysis (and the decision might emerge)
1. Define the Problem
2. Describe the Problem
3. Establish possible causes
4. Test the most probable cause
5. Verify the true root cause
…and the solution emerges from this process

Tasks: Consider these examples with your colleagues, adapting one of the rational-linear approaches:

1. A new competitor appears in your industry, very powerful, agile and capable.
2. We’re losing customers, the cause seems to be the low morale in the sales team
3. It looks like a great training course for all 25 workers in the department, but there’s only a budget for 5.
c. Decision Trees
d. Mind maps
e. Other Techniques

Satisficing
Allowing others to make the decision: acquiescence to authority or expert knowledge
Prioritization of outcome
Coin-flipping
Guessing
Supernatural techniques
f. Scenario Planning
It’s not a decision-making tool as such: the basic objective, based on a given scenario, is to imagine a coherent plausible possible future within which decisions might be developed.

Try these:

1. In ten years’ time, 50% of your full-time workers will spend 3 days a week away from the office. What will be the implications of this on every aspect of your organization?
2. In two years’ time legislation will be brought in to force workers to report unethical behavior in the company.
3. In 6 years’ time the ethnic make-up of the country will be 80% white, 15% black and 5% ‘other’.
4. In 10 years’ time our company will be the second largest in the world in this industry

8. Decision-making exercises
Discuss the following using whichever model you prefer, but alternate models with each new question.

For each one consider:
• On the basis of the information here can you come to a definitive decision now? Justify your answer, especially if you said ‘yes’
• If not, what other information would you need to have, in order to help you come to a decision?

1. Hiring someone without the required qualifications, but they’re very good
2. Deciding who to make redundant
3. You have the choice to fire someone you know is innocent, but you don’t like them
4. How much to reward people who work at night in a supermarket
5. Whether to offer people a transport allowance, even though the company can’t really afford it
6. How to train all 120,000 employees in the use of the new IT system
7. The new IT system keeps failing. What do we do?
8. The new outsourced IT system appears to be four times over budget, and it’s not in place and it doesn’t work well. Do we bring in a new IT company?
9. Feel free to add more from your own experience

Additional material on stress which you might like to consider using in your CW2 presentations:

HSE on stress management (2016)
Definition of stress
Stress can hit anyone at any level of the business and recent research shows that work related stress is widespread and is not confined to particular sectors, jobs or industries. HSE’s formal definition of work related stress is: “The adverse reaction people have to excessive pressures or other types of demand placed on them at work.”
Management Standards – Demands
Includes issues such as workload, work patterns, and the work environment.
The Standard is that:
• employees indicate that they are able to cope with the demands of their jobs; and
• systems are in place locally to respond to any individual concerns.
Management Standards – Control
How much say the person has in the way they do their work.
The Standard is that:
• employees indicate that they are able to have a say about the way they do their work; and
• systems are in place locally to respond to any individual concerns.
Management Standards – Support
Includes the encouragement and resources provided by the organisation, line management and colleagues.
The Standard is that:
• employees indicate that they receive adequate information and support from their colleagues and superiors;
• and systems are in place locally to respond to any individual concerns.
Management Standards – Relationships
Includes promoting positive working to avoid conflict and dealing with unacceptable behaviour.
The Standard is that:
• employees indicate that they are not subjected to unacceptable behaviours, e.g. bullying at work; and
• systems are in place locally to respond to any individual concerns.

Management Standards – Role
Whether people understand their role within the organisation and whether the organisation ensures that the person does not have conflicting roles.
The Standard is that:
• employees indicate that they understand their role and responsibilities; and
• systems are in place locally to respond to any individual concerns.

Management Standards – Change
How organisational change (large or small) is managed and communicated in the organisation.
The Standard is that:
• employees indicate that the organisation engages them frequently when undergoing an organisational change; and
• systems are in place locally to respond to any individual concerns.