** Your paper has to be under 20% to be accepted. Try to use less direct quotes and more paraphrasing.

Our reading this week emphasizes the role of demand management in creating a coordinated flow of demand across the supply chain. Experience shows that selecting the best method of estimating demand will vary with the maturity of the business and the data available. Address the following:

1. A start-up alternative fuel automobile company has a first year market forecast of 1000 units. Identify the forecasting model that is in use here and explain why it is the obvious choice.
2. During its first three full years of operation the automobile company had actual sales of:
   1. Year One: 800 units
   2. Year Two: 1200 units
   3. Year Three: 2000 units
   4. Using a simple three year moving average, calculate the predicted demand for Year Four.  Explain your reasoning.
3. The sales department expects the growth in Year Four to more closely resemble the average growth experienced in the last two years. Predict the number of units expected in Year Four. Discuss whether you would recommend this quantity as the manufacturing plan or the quantity found using the simple three year moving average in step two and why.
4. In Year Three, one fourth of the production was sold in China. The marketing department has just learned of a new tax that will be imposed on all luxury imports into China beginning in Year Four. It is expected that this will decrease sales to China by 50%. Apply this market intelligence to the simple three year moving average method discussed in step two and recalculate the predicted demand for Year Four. Explain how you arrived at your answer.

The Alternative Fuel Company Case paper:

• Must be four to five double-spaced pages in length (not including title and references pages) and formatted according to APA style as outlined in the Ashford Writing Center (Links to an external site.).
• Must include a separate title page with the following:
  • Title of paper
  • Student’s name
  • Course name and number
  • Instructor’s name
  • Date submitted
• Must use at least two scholarly sources in addition to the course text.
  • The Scholarly, Peer Reviewed, and Other Credible Sources (Links to an external site.) table offers additional guidance on appropriate source types. If you have questions about whether a specific source is appropriate for this assignment, please contact your instructor. Your instructor has the final say about the appropriateness of a specific source for a particular assignment.
• Must document all sources in APA style as outlined in the Ashford Writing Center.
• Must include a separate references page that is formatted according to APA style as outlined in the Ashford Writing Center.

Carefully review the Grading Rubric (Links to an external site.) for the criteria that will be used to evaluate your assignment.