The Framing Effect and the Wording of a Question
Try the following two problems:
Problem 1
Imagine that a country in Europe is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. The public health officials have proposed two alternative programs to combat the disease. Assume that these officials have scientifically estimated the consequences of the programs, as follows:
If they adopt Program A, 200 people will be saved.
If they adopt Program B, there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved, and a two-thirds probability that zero people will be saved.
Which of these two programs would you choose?
Problem 2
Now imagine the same situation, but with these two alternatives:
If Program C is adopted, 400 people will die.
If Program D is adopted, there is a one-third probability that no one will die, and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die.
Which of these two programs would you choose?