The Wind Farm

The task

Electricity generation companies are required to send a prediction of output from all their power stations to the National Grid four hours in advance. You are asked to use regression analysis to produce a formula for forecasting the power output 4 hours in advance for a particular wind farm, Brimham Moor, based on historic performance.

The electricity generated at a wind farm depends on the wind speed, so the best way to predict output is to predict wind speed and to derive power output from that. However, it would be too expensive to measure wind speed at Brimham Moor, so the company relies on wind speeds from meteorological measuring stations around the country (these are usually based at airports). It would be nice to have the direction of the wind sped as well, but unfortunately, these are not available.

The Data

You have two files: one contains the power output of Brimham Moor wind farm for every half-hour of 2005 in MW. The other has the wind speeds at a number of Meteorological stations for the same period measured hourly.

Assumptions

Assume that there are instant communications from the measuring points (wind farm power output and wind speed) to the computer running your forecasting software. In particular, assume that at the point you make your forecasts you know the current and past wind speeds at all the measuring stations.

Submission

You should submit your work in the form of a report, as a single document in Word as well as the working process in excel

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