The discussion board this week draws upon the advanced work you’ve done in preparing for week 9. Public opinion polls are very common. The media makes regular use of this concept. We’ve all seen, and read the results.
- Do we understand what the results mean?
- Does it make a difference in what we do?
- How we react?
The discussion question is:
Quinnipiac University reported the results of a recent poll (February 20) for the pending 2020 Michigan Senatorial election race. Assume this for those most likely to vote. Here are the following results:
Peters (D)45%James (R)39%
Assume all of this was with a 4% margin of error. What does this mean to you? Why is the comment of those most likely to vote important?
REPLY#1
Quinnipiac University reported the results of a recent poll (February 20) for the pending 2020 Michigan Senatorial election race. Assume this for those most likely to vote. Here are the following results:
Peters (D)
45%
James (R)
39%
Assume all of this was with a 4% margin of error. What does this mean to you?
To start, let’s talk about what is margin of error. Margin of error tells you how many percentage points your real population value will differ (Statistics How To). For the discussion question, it says that our margin is 4%, that means that your results will be within 4 percent of the real population results. Below is broken down on what that means between Peter and James.
Peter:
45% + 4%=49%
45%-4%=41%
James:
39%+4%= 43%
39%-4%= 35%
After reviewing over the results, in the beginning it was obvious that Peter was in the running with a 45% while James fell behind 6%. However, calculating the 4% margin error, results still indicate that Peter is still in the winning position if numbers were 4% lower or higher. James could fall close to Peter if his number of voter results were just a tad higher.
Why is the comment of those most likely to vote important?
The margin error of 4% is set to determine that 4% of citizens could not show to vote which could affect the results of the poll or those 4% will show up which will benefit the polls. Those likely to vote is very important because it can help determine the margin error percent each time there is a voting taking place. The results of the citizens and those who didn’t vote take into account for the next margin error percent, it’s how they determine what the results could have been if they had those other percent of citizens. Voting is important because it helps citizens make decisions for their state and who their governor will be.
https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/probability-and-statistics/hypothesis-testing/margin-of-error/
REPLY#2
Quinnipiac University reported the results of a recent poll (February 20) for the pending 2020 Michigan Senatorial election race. Assume this for those most likely to vote. Here are the following results:
Peters (D)45%James (R)39%
Assume all of this was with a 4% margin of error.
What does this mean to you?
Based on the data above, a 4% margin of error would be calculated as follows.
Peters – 45% (+-) 4% = 49% (High) or 41% (Low)
James – 39% (+-) 4% = 43% (High) or 35% (Low)
There is a scenario where James beats Peters if he is High on the plus side, and Peters is low. Also the more votes James takes away from Peters, the higher the probability he comes to making that scenario a reality.
Why is the comment of those most likely to vote important?
The comment is important because it preliminarily determines which party has control of the Senate seats (in this case). Every state has two representatives in the Senate. Michigan has 14 representatives in the House. When it comes to the Presidential Election in 2020, the electoral college will represent the sum of the House and Senate. Depending on how the district’s vote (Democrat or Republican) will determine if that presidential candidate has won the state. The Senate is automatic in the count of those delegates.
Example: Michigan (as of now)
Senators – Debbie Stabenow (D) and Gary Peters (D)
2 electors that account for 2 (D) of the electoral college +14 Reps/Districts = 16 Electors
Republicans (Trump) would need to win at least 9 districts to win the state in 2020 if Peters is re-elected to win the State come November.
7 Dem vs 9 Rep
The inverse is correct for the Democratic Candidate. Only because those two senate seats are already blue. Democrats would only need to win 7 Districts in November to win the States 16 Electoral College votes.
9 Dem v 7 Rep
https://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm?State=MI
