## What is the probability that the parcel was shipped express and arrived the next day?

1.  In a lot of n components, 30% are defective. Two components are drawn at random and tested. Let A be the event that the first component drawn is defective, and let B be the event that the second component drawn is defective. For which lot size n will A and B be more nearly independent: n = 10 or n = 10,000? Explain.

2.  A certain delivery service offers both express and standard delivery. Seventy-five percent of parcels are sent by standard delivery, and 25% are sent by express. Of those sent standard, 80% arrive the next day, and of those sent express, 95% arrive the next day. A record of a parcel delivery is chosen at random from the company’s files.

a.  What is the probability that the parcel was shipped express and arrived the next day?

b.  What is the probability that it arrived the next day?

c.   Given that the package arrived the next day, what is the probability that it was sent express?

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